• Kaveh Jalinous

History, Box Office, and The Future...

An editorial.


There is no doubting it: Avengers: Endgame will make history, breaking countless records in both film standards and box office standards. The film has already made 305 million dollars overseas, and made 60 million in a single premiere night, breaking the record set by Star Wars: The Force Awakens back in 2015. The film is projected to make at least 270 million dollars by the end of the weekend, but most sites have an opening around 290-300 million predicted, absolutely shattering previous box office records, most of which were set by Marvel Studios anyways, particularly last year's Avengers: Infinity War. But what does this box office potential mean for the film, and what does it mean for the world of film in general? In this review, I am going to dive into a deeper analysis of superhero films in box office, transitioning into a prediction for Endgame, and a prediction for the future. ​ When looking at the worldwide box office of all time compared to the domestic, it is interesting to see the differences. While 2009's Avatar is the champion on the world stage, The Force Awakens is the domestic champ, absolutely crushing all competition at 936 million dollars. This is especially due to the fact that The Force Awakens had a shattering starting weekend, and only dropped a small percentage in the upcoming weeks, mainly due to the fact that it was Christmas. The same goes for Avatar, which also opened around the world at Christmas time, proving as the main Christmas movie option for people around the world. The reason Infinity War did not perform as massively in both the domestic and international arena is because of one simple fact: its release date. Now, Avengers movies have always been released in late April/early May, and at this point, it is simply tradition to release it on one of these days. The reason that it doesn't get as much box office life is because of a wide variety of factors. Firstly, superhero films drop in their second weekend at notorious levels, usually dropping to half of their opening weekend gross. For Endgame, this will mean somewhere around 150 million, still bringing its gross to crazy levels. But, the film will keep dropping at a similar amount, soon reducing to a 25% drop but falling nonetheless. The other problem with this release date is the fact that Endgame is leading a convoluted summer season, with constant big release after big release. This will make it harder for the film to break records, as so many movies are coming out so soon in time - with releases over the next few weeks being the new Aladdin, the Godzilla sequel, and Pokemon: Detective Pikachu, all movies predicted to make a lot of money. The silver lining in this situation is that next week's releases are not too big in magnitude, giving Endgame a chance to have a killer second weekend, potentially even breaking records. But, only time can tell here. ​ One of the craziest parts of predicting Endgame is the fact that the film is 182 minutes long, an extremely long film to have in theatres. In the past, three hour movies have been a long shot, as many fail to make box office bounds. The most recent failed sub-three hour endeavor lies in Blade Runner 2049, a great film that made a little over 50% of its budget in domestic terms. The reason it is so hard to make a lot of money off three hour films is because the theatres can't show as many showings of the film, as it requires so much time for one showing - including trailers, advertisements, and clean-ups. For most movies, three hour runtimes are a death sentence. But for Endgame, the factor will barely affect the direction of the film's box office run. Theatres have adapted to the film's magnitude, with many auditoriums solely dedicated to showing the movie. So, in the case of Endgame, the three hours will have a tiny effect on the theatrical run, barely hindering it from making all the money it possibly can. ​ So, where exactly will Endgame land on the box office scale. One thing is for sure: it will break records in a multitude of different categories, there is no denying that. The film is the culmination of 21 previous films, and the climactic conclusion to a distinct universe. People, including myself, have been waiting for this movie for years, and want to see what will happen to their favourite superheroes. This thirst for a conclusion will lead to a massive opening weekend at is 90% guaranteed to break the record, but the future remains unclear for the movie. In my opinion, I could see it breaking the domestic record, but the world record is a whole other story. So many people want to see this movie so much that it could have a monster opening weekend, and then quickly drop in its subsequent weeks. But, on the other hand, the exact opposite could happen. The film could have a series of strong weeks due to heavy interest and the thirst to see it again. One thing remains clear: only time will tell.

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